TSA's impact on air traffic, incl. to The Bahamas

[floridacargocat]

For anyone who is following the work of TSA (mandated by Congress), it will be no surprise to read about the latest plan of TSA, that passenger manifests need to be submitted at least 1 hour before departure of the aircraft to the US. In plain English this means, that all passengers need to have either checked in or boarded the aircraft 1 hour before departure. Currently the requirement is, that the airline can submit this passenger manifest up to 15 minutes after departure (which in a way is not very logical, but is very practical especially for the Florida-Bahamas traffic). This further means, that even for the small charter companies, passengers checking in 60 minutes or less before departure would not be accepted anymore. This further means, that passengers have to show up earlier, have to wait somewhere (either in a waiting area or in the airplane - in the heat of a summer day? without any air conditioning) until the passenger manifest is submitted to the US authorities. Passenger manifests must be submitted for both outbound and inbound flights.
This further means (once the plan is acepted which is a foregone conclusion), that both scheduled and non-scheduled air carriers will not be able to turn around their airplanes that fast, thus losing capacity and revenues.
TSA plans have a way of its own regarding implementation.
What other new requirements are coming? This is my private forecast based on my own research work and trend analysis:
- US citizens must have passports for international travel incl. The Bahamas, and birth certificates will not be accepted anymore for international travel in the Western Hemisphere
- US citizens will be able to get the new biometric passports as of early 2005
- passenger manifests for international flights will contain far more information than before requiring a far higher amount of work for collecting all the data (the long announced eAPIS, which is expected to be launched in the next few months or weeks)
- advance electronic manifest for private fliers (a little bit further down the road, but following the same requirements as for commercial traffic)
- advance electronic manifests for private boaters (a little bit further down the road, but together with the advance electronic manifests for private fliers it would close quite a few existing gaps). The cost impact of these new (anticipated and implemented) security measures will have to be seen in the light of additional security to the USA.
I am looking for comments.

[Abacoparrott]

none of the changes affect me personally but........I would be concerned about the early-flight passengers flying out of MHH if they stay on the outer Cays in Abaco. For example, the earliest ferry from Guana is 8am....arriving in Marsh Harbour around 8:30 am. If their flight leaves at 9:30 am then they are screwed since they can't get to the airport til 8:45 am, then wait in line, etc......according to your scenerio. It seems to me that the only reason the gov't is moving up the reporting-of-manifest time is to accomodate the gov't........they can't get the manifests checked fast enough to allow the airlines to report DURING the flight........sooooo, it's just another example of the government acting BEFORE they think.......ken

[floridacargocat]

Ken,
#1 it is not my scenario,
#2 crew manifests already have to be submitted at least 1 hour before departure (and BTW, TSA response time is getting better and better, and if the operator makes a simple typo in the crew manifest, they respond fairly quickly with a potential threat of denial of landing rights in the USA),
#3 TSA is making blanket rules and does not consider situations like the short hops between Florida and The Bahamas or vice versa,
#4 TSA (see Mr. Hutchison's statements "If we have to have information 60 or 45 minutes before, you've got to close off the passengers that come in at the last second," he told reporters. It's a behavioral adjustment that has to be made." indicates very clearly the intentions of this agency. Passengers and air carriers have to adjust.
As I have said in the beginning, if you follow the work of TSA, its various statements, the legislative efforts to make the USA safer in the wake of the events of 9-11, then with a little bit of contemplation and looking at it very rationally, all my forecasts on security measurements are in line with the actions of the Government.
What will be the economic consequences?
Vendors at the foreign airports could make more business during the waiting period,
commuter and charter airlines will be more limited in their flexibility to fill up empty seats, hotels/motels close to the foreign airport of departure might get more business (especially for early morning departures), commuters and charters have to recover the costs of the extra waiting times or install systems (extra expenses) to submit the manifests within the time limits, commuters and charters will have to communicate more with their customers.
TSA admittedly has a very difficult mandate, which very often is opposite to what the normal US citizen is expecting. How they do it in the end very often leaves something to be desired, as their blanket plans do not consider regional aspects.

[Abacoparrott]

OK Axel, what I meant by YOUR scenario is that this is still a TSA "plan" and that you EXPECT it to be implemented. Also, if this 1 hour manifest reporting is already being done as stated in your last post, why did you list it as "new" in your first post? Just curious.....I pay atten-shun to your knowing words..ken

[floridacargocat]

The 1 hour is done for crew, not for passengers

[Abacoparrott]

I now understand......ken

[ncdd]

try and keep up Ken!!!!! I bet if you would have voted for Kerry this would not be happening

I now understand......ken

[Abacoparrott]

me and about 59 million others......