Jeanne

[Wooden Nickel]

Notice the latest track for Jeanne? Nice!

[Abacowilly]

The 5am EDT advisory shows a direct path to Abaco - 'seems similar to Floyd's "track". Let's all pray that she takes a more north to norhteasterly route quickly and heads on out into the Atlantic and away from Bermuda . . . .maybe Ivan will apply some "pressure" to push her out to sea. Enuf is enuf already!!

AW

[bellavista]

I agree. Best news about 5 day forecast is last days are usually off.

Trend now seems to be pushing west rather than east.

We may not get hit ,but that probably means hit further west.

All of us (bahamas and florida) need a break--go East Jeanne!!

[Herve]

Here is the latest prediction.

http://www.hurricanealley.net/images/11L.gif

[ThermoTrent]

Do keep in mind thats a rough average of several model predictions. Only 1 model I saw has it going on that track, one has it vering off towards FL earlier, others have it vering out into the Atlantic before the northern Bahamas. As Bob said on in his forecast, there's a lot of influences/disturbances between it and Abaco.

Good to prepare of course and keep a close eye on it.

Hope it sails out into open water!

TT

[norvell]

The 5am EDT advisory shows a direct path to Abaco - 'seems similar to Floyd's "track". Let's all pray that she takes a more north to norhteasterly route quickly and heads on out into the Atlantic and away from Bermuda . . . .maybe Ivan will apply some "pressure" to push her out to sea. Enuf is enuf already!!

AW
The 11:00 a.m. track on the noaa web site is a little better, even though it is 5 days out. It is a tad east of the Abaco's. It will update again at 5 p.m.
Guess it all depends on Ivan. The further east Ivan goes, the further east Jeanne will go.

[Herve]

here are the latest models...and they do show a slant to the east

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_11.gif

[stagalee]

I like the green track the best

[Kimberly]

Back to a tropical storm, which bodes well ... most strike probability charts at this point show Jeanne's targeted path to be some 30 miles east of Harbour Island and Abaco by the weekend:

5 PM AST THU SEP 16 2004

...JEANNE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING AND WATCH FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS HAITI EASTWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE
INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 85 KM... NORTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER OF JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST INLAND OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND...BUT JEANNE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH AFTER IT MOVES OFF THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. A SUSTAINED WIND TO 69 MPH...111 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED AT LA ROMANA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AT 4 PM AST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE SUBSIDING ALONG THE COASTLINE OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY.

[GoodGenes]

000
Wtnt41 Knhc 162035
Tcdat1
Tropical Storm Jeanne Discussion Number 13
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
5 Pm Edt Thu Sep 16 2004

The Initial Motion Is 275/7 As Jeanne Continues To Edge Inland Over
The Northeastern Dominican Republic. Despite Its Trek Over
Land...it Has Been Maintaining A Well-defined Eye Visible On The
San Juan Nws Radar With Excellent Banding Features. Cloud Tops
Have Warmed However...and It Is Presumed That The Winds Have
Dropped Just Below Hurricane Strength.

The Previous Official Forecast Was A Compromise Between The
Right-leaning Gfs And Left-leaning Gfdl Models. This
Afternoon...the Gfs Shifted Westward And The Gfdl Shifted
Eastward...significantly Narrowing The Guidance Envelope. The
Official Forecast Has Not Been Changed Much From The Previous
Advisory. Global Guidance Is A Little More Consistent In Showing
That The Remnants Of Ivan Will Be Close Enough To The Southeast
U.s. Coast To Deflect Jeanne's Track To The Right In 2-3 Days.
However...building Heights Over The Northeast U.s. In About 5 Days
Are Expecte To Prevent Jeanne From Recurving Out To Sea. With The
Five Day Forecast Point Near The U.s. Coastline...this Might Be A
Good Time To Remind Everyone That The Average Five Day Nhc Official
Forecast Error Is About 375 Miles...in Other Words...it Is Still
Too Soon To Be Sure What Portion Of The United States Might Be
Affected By Jeanne.

The Upper Environment Around Jean Is Characterized By A Highly
Divergent Flow That Would Favor Strengthening After Jeanne Clears
Hispaniola. The Official Forecast Remains Close To The Ships And
Gfdl Guidance.

Forecaster Franklin

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 16/2100z 19.0n 69.3w 60 Kt
12hr Vt 17/0600z 19.5n 70.7w 50 Kt
24hr Vt 17/1800z 20.4n 72.3w 50 Kt
36hr Vt 18/0600z 21.4n 73.9w 60 Kt
48hr Vt 18/1800z 22.5n 75.0w 65 Kt
72hr Vt 19/1800z 25.0n 77.0w 75 Kt
96hr Vt 20/1800z 28.5n 78.5w 80 Kt
120hr Vt 21/1800z 32.0n 80.5w 80 Kt

[nancy mcdaniel]

The huge population center of Palm Beach County is reeling from Frances. Many, many people and business have no power. Kids just went back to school yesterday. Many students at my kids school have no roofs and are living in hotels. Tremendous landscape damage, flooding terrible in low-lying (thereby low-income) areas. Many houses condemed. Most commerical signs blown out (fast food, stores, service businesses), traffic lights not working. Grocery stores just now recovering and filling the shelves. Streets filled with debris, garbage, Florida Power and Light Trucks, contract haulers taking away mountains of trees, limbs. Many schools still not in session due to catastrophic damage. So we don't want the "green line" - one man's blessing is another one's curse. Let's collectively pull this one into the shipping lanes of the Atlantic and let the professionals handle it (that is after the terrain of the Dominican Republic fizzle her verve).

[GoodGenes]

I'm with you, Nancy! Wishing you all the best there in Palm Beach County and Guana. No one should have a double whammie -- and Florida has now had a triple.

[Colette]

Hate to add this site, the navy has it passing over 'Hole-in-the-wall' and the written report reads like deja vu....Man. Has this been a bad year.
Windadct's humourous post needed. I do have a cat and a large lime, etc... see his post. Happy B'day Windadct.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2004&MO=Sep&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=11L.JEANNE&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&DISPLAY=Latest&ACTIVES=04-ATL-09L.IVAN,04-ATL-11L.JEANNE,04-EPAC-12E.ISIS,04-ATL-12L.NONAME,04-EPAC-13E.JAVIER,04-WPAC-92W.INVEST,04-WPAC-93W.INVEST,04-CPAC-94C.INVEST,&STYLE=tables

[bahamamoo]

The new N.W.S. track centers the eye over my house, 8pm on sunday!

[ThermoTrent]

The new N.W.S. track centers the eye over my house, 8pm on sunday!
The most up to date models are saying it will track to the east of the northern Bahamas. Jeanne is going to run afowl of Ivan's backwash soon, plus another large ridge over the NE I think. Don't go into panic mode yet, current estimates have it not near northern Bahamas until Monday or later. These model predictions will change I'm sure, but are looking better than the ones a few days ago.




http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200411_model.gif

[Pattie and Bob Toler]

Trent,
More like move out of panic mode! We were really dreading this one--YAY! What a difference a few hours makes!!!!!

Pattie

[eternity]

http://coconuttelegraph.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=14&stc=1Let it not hit any more land, We live in south fl. and dad lives in Hopetown, so everyone get outside and blow real hard. This was taken from www.hwn.org (http://www.hwn.org) at 6pm on friday.
Now where will the party be when hurrican season ends...LOL

[TurtleDreams]

It looks like someone has successfully put an effective forcefield in place, or the Pinball Wizard has taken control, but either way its looking better and better!
Susan

[robgeorge]

8 AM NHC forecast with relation to White Sound

http://seascapebahamas.com/photogallery/hj.jpg