Hurricane Ivan

[Red Jacket]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

Please keep track of this one and read the discussions.

I do not like the looks of it

Toby aka Red Jacket

[Mont]

at this point, there are some fairly large varations in the storm track model. Only time will tell the tale.

[SamFamAustin]

I agree that Ivan should be watched very closely. Latest 11 EST Monday post showed a track just inside Cuba. However, the storm is still down around 12 N. For another intersting satellite view see:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

http://coconuttelegraph.net/forums/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&p=590#
EEK!

[Erik Schonberg]

Wtnt34 Knhc 061444
Tcpat4
Bulletin
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 17
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
11 Am Ast Mon Sep 06 2004

...dangerous Hurricane Headed For The Windward Islands...

At 11 Am Ast...1500z...the Government Of Barbados Has Issued A
Hurricane Warning For Barbados...st. Vincent And The Grenadines.

At 11 Am Ast...1500z...the Government Of St. Lucia Has Issued A
Hurricane Warning For St. Lucia.

At 11 Am Ast...1500z...the Government Of Trinidad Has Issued A
Hurricane Warning For Grenada And Its Dependencies And A Tropical
Storm Warning For Trinidad.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For Tobago.

A Hurricane Watch Remains In Effect For Martinique.

Interests Elsewhere In The Lesser Antilles Should Monitor The
Progress Of Ivan.

At 11 Am Ast...1500z...the Center Of Hurricane Ivan Was Located Near
Latitude 11.2 North...longitude 53.4 West Or About 435 Miles...
700 Km...east-southeast Of Barbados.

Ivan Is Moving Toward The West Near 22 Mph ...35 Km/hr...and A
Westward To West-northwestward Motion Is Expected Over The Next 24
Hours. On This Track The Center Of The Hurricane Will Be
Approaching The Islands In The Warning Area Tomorrow Morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 125 Mph...205 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Some Increase In Strength Is Possible During The Next
24 Hours.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 35 Miles... 55 Km...
From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up
To 140 Miles...220 Km.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 955 Mb...28.20 Inches.

Repeating The 11 Am Ast Position...11.2 N... 53.4 W. Movement
Toward...west Near 22 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...125 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure... 955 Mb.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...please Monitor
Products Issued By Your Local Weather Office.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane
Center At 2 Pm Ast Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 5 Pm
Ast.

Forecaster Pasch

$$

[Moderator242]

Any information regarding Hurricane Ivan should be addressed in this thread.

[Kimberly]

Bahamas Wary Of Ivan In The Wake Of Frances [Nassau Tribune]

Stunned Bahamians just getting over the shock of Hurricane Frances are being urged to keep a close eye on Hurricane Ivan. With floods still preventing planes from landing in Freeport, a view from the air was the closest that could be managed yesterday.

Nassau got off lightly in Hurricane Frances compared with the nation's second city, Freeport, which has been one of the worst hit areas, suffering severe devastation. The Tribune flew over Grand Bahama and Abaco yesterday to survey the damage.

With airports closed, harbours damaged, roads flooded, power lines down and telephones cut off, many settlements in both Grand Bahama and Abaco have been isolated from each other, and the islands are cut off from the outside world.

Stunned Bahamians just getting over the shock of Hurricane Frances are being urged to keep a close eye on Hurricane Ivan, a category four storm that could make its presence felt in the Bahamas as early as Friday morning, the Met Office reported yesterday.

Source: The Tribune

[... more lime, please.]

[Mont]

this image should auto update by hitting refresh or reload

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200409_5day.gif

[SamFamAustin]

Are these posts at all useful for the locals? Hurricane Ivan is currently threatening Barbados and Tobago in the Windward Islands at 11.4 N. Barbados reported gusting winds of 90 MPH. What we see in the maps such as what Mont posted above (thanks Mont!) is the "middle of the road" between an ensemble of perhaps six different models. The US Navy model trends towards the Bahamas, while others take it through the Yucatan Channel. That's a BIG spread. Like Frances, there is a ridge of high pressure keeping the storm on a westward track right now. Unlike Frances, there is the potential for a large, upper level trough or "low" to develop in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) through the central US. Thus many (I'm not a meteorologist) think that the forecast models all depend on the strength of the GOM low pressure area, which could draw the storm to the left. That's what you want. Another branch of the NOAA (Hydrometeorologic Prediction Center, HPC) tracks Ivan right over Grand Bahama Island! I'd say predictions would be clearer once Ivan hits somewhere about 17 N near Cuba, Jamaica, and Haiti, probably late on Friday. Yes, there could be some delays. Keep the faith - Sam

[Mont]

here in Texas, we got hit by a cold front today, that will be moving offshore overnight. This time of year, it's best to play it safe, and yes, I am a middle of the road type guy when it comes to the weather forecast. ;)

[birddawg]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/PRIR.JPG

[BBVPatti]

Found this link to the Naval Oeanographic Office-- provides water temp and other oceanographic features that are updated daily. Gives a good idea of the energy available to feed a hurricane along it's path.

http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag142.html

[SamFamAustin]

BBV-Patti that was a real cool site! I had to check out what was the Loop Current and why there was sometimes a warm core off to the west (left). Anyway, it looks like Ivan could run into some 31 C water (88 degrees F), whereas most of the coastal waters are about 80 F. Good news from the NHC that Ivan is taking more of a westward (left) track away from the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas. I think the experts are a little stumped about this one and when it would recurve to the north ... again thanks for the cool site. Sam

[dianne dorsey]

Yes, let's keep an "I" on Ivan. Hope you folks made it thru the last storm allright. Frances knocked out our power here in Lake Worth for 6 days!